Michel Merluzeau

AIR136: Paris Airshow Report – The return of the “Foires de Champagne”

As for their fame, the popular expression, “not to know your Champagne fairs'” meant not to know what everyone else knew. They were a rendez-vous for the whole of Europe, for the offerings of both North and South. The trade caravans would converge on Champagne and Brie in assembled and guarded convoys, not unlike the other caravans with their camels which crossed the great deserts of Islam on their way to the Mediterranean.

Fernand Braudel, CIVILIZATION AND CAPITALISM 15th-18th Century, Vol III

Airshows are too often where great expectations fall short.  For the so-demanding and…

By Michel Merluzeau, ago

Cogitatio 79 – A program we like: Explorer Aircraft, refreshingly grounded in market reality.

“Start by doing what’s necessary; then do what’s possible; and suddenly you are doing the impossible.”
Saint Francis of Assisi

We are intrigued. As market analysts we always appreciate efforts that we deem logical and driven by solid market fundamentals and demand-based facts.
Two programs are increasingly getting some traction in our opinion. Their dynamics are however completely different in terms of market stages, segments and overall feasibility. We will address Explorer Aircraft in this note, while the other program, JetZero will be analyzed in a later note (and it’s a tough case!).

By Michel Merluzeau, ago

AIR 135: Unsustainable Sustainability or Viable Renewables? Part 1: The Problems

Sheriff Rosco Coltrane: Well listen, let me tell ya the story. See, if you rub this lamp, if it’s Aladdin’s, then the smoke comes out, hits the fan and then the genie pops out and gives you all sorts of wishes.
Boss Hogg: Oh, that lamp, the one with the genie. Oh I know all about that anyhow. Yeah, but you gotta be touched in the head to believe a fairy tale like that.

The discussion about the environment and the impact of aviation on planet Earth can be at times as confusing as the people forcing their ideologies for and against stronger initiatives (and penalties) for some of the more negatively impactful human activities. We will not engage in a debate about global warming, global cooling or global idiocy (for the latter,  we would gladly provide ample dissertation efforts if asked) but this note will rather focus on the realizable (viable) vs the ideology (Genie) and what it means for the future aerospace supply chain.

By Michel Merluzeau, ago

Cogitatio 76: PNAA 2023 and the End of the Time of Complacency

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”
Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov (Lenin)

We attended the annual PNAA conference last week near Seattle. This pillar event was especially notable again for the expressed and persisting levels of concern via-a-vis the health of the lower tiers of the aerospace supply chain. Two issues were particularly dominating the proceedings:
Number one: The financial health of suppliers,  particularly the 3s and 4s.
Number two: The lingering labor constraints that continue to affect the productive capital of many suppliers, with the potential ripple effect that one can expect from such workforce disruptions.

By Michel Merluzeau, ago

AIR133 2023 Commercial Market Outlook – “Listen, don’t mention the war! I mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it all right.”

With 2022 behind us, it is again time  to assess the past twelve months for the aerospace and defense industries, and provide you with our expectations for the coming calendar year. As in last year, the degree of unpredictability with threats and risks remains elevated in the near term. The Russo-Ukrainian conflict has clearly dominated events in 2022, as we had anticipated in our 2022 outlook note last year.

By Michel Merluzeau, ago
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