As Boeing progressively emerges from the MAX disaster and rebuilds its product strategy, our attention has recently been focusing on the post 767 era. We characterize the 767 as an anchor aircraft – a system that serves many purposes and is an essential component to Boeing’s commercial and defense market shares. However, the expiry date is coming up and Seattle needs to take a decision about the
We attended the NBAA convention in windy Las Vegas over the past couple of days and are returning to the office with stronger than expected sentiments of uncertainty.
While the mood of the industry is striking a definite positive tone, we are equally cautious about the deteriorating state of a supply chain that remains deeply woven in other segments of the aerospace and defense industries. However, the demand outlook for business aircraft in the near to medium term remains strong and is primarily driven by social and economical circumstances. This is not a demand cycle associated with
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This is the recording of our conversation with Alex Krutz about what may come next with the consolidation of the aerospace supply chain.
The document issued by USAF on 19 July 2021 is an important start for the full recapitalization of the entire legacy Eisenhower tanker fleet. Since the controversial awards of the KC-X program to (initially) Northrop Grumman in 2009 and subsequently to Boeing Defense & Space in 2011, only 179 of the 479 tankers in service are scheduled to be replaced by the end of the decade. By 2029, the targeted delivery date of the second replacement tranche, existing KC-135s will be seven decades old while KC-10s will be bordering on five decades of service on average. This state of affairs is an operational weakness for the services, particularly in the event that incidents and potentially wider conflicts erupt in the western Pacific theatre.
We take a look at potential new programs from 2021 to 2040. We have only included programs that have either been announced or are driven by realistic market and technology considerations. The absence of new programs from 2031+ is a reflection of the above. We of course expect programs to develop during that decade. Commercial, business and selected defense programs are included.
This signal and the noise were clearly heading F-35A’s way, and media rumors proved entirely correct. We had initially expected the Dassault Rafale to triumph based on a rather predictable Swiss CONOPS, the previous evaluation, and the overkill that F-35 would provide the tiny Federation airspace (about the size of Nellis AFB’s range).
Our topic for June are the WTO, Airbus and the resilience of business aviation, particularly in North America.
This week, we provide an update for business jet production to 2030. Overall, the segment has demonstrated stronger than expected performance in terms of flight hours flown, primarily in North America and also production which was down only 18% from 2019…
As the the pandemic is unevenly subsiding globally, commercial air transport markets are beginning to recover strongly in North America, Europe and most of Asia. However, this growth hiatus will likely perdure into 2022-2023 for…
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This week’s Monitor looks at some of the latest OSINT about Spirit AeroSystems. The information is available directly on the AIR Monitor landing page and to the Spirit dashboard.
The recovery from the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic is not going to be all smooth sailing. Society and industry have transitioned from violent contraction to stabilization and perhaps soon, a Friedman-ian “plucking model” moment for some of the world’s advanced economies. The characteristics of the next phase of the crisis are thus going to materialize with significant global disparities.. For the aerospace industry, the likelihood of disruption will migrate away from reduced demand but will be significantly impacted by the societal and political aftershocks of the crisis.
Much has been discussed recently about the beleaguered FCAS (Future Combat Air System). France and Germany are currently trying to find a solution before the end of April, ahead of the much-discussed Bundestag elections in September.. While the two parties appear to be deadlocked about FCAS work shares, and while the situation appears problematic to solve in the near term, some solutions are being developed to meet the crucial agreement deadline and ensure that prototypes and systems are on track for the second half of the decade.
This note takes a look at the most recent status of the MAX fleet as it returns to airline service.
This week’s monitor looks at some of the latest about Safran. The information is available directly on the AIR monitor landing page and to the Safran dashboard.
Our next Monitor will focus on Spirit Aerosystems.
We review some of the key stories for the week of March 1, 2021
