AIR ANALYST NOTES
AIR68 – A220 at nearly 3 years of service
Here is our revised outlook to 2032 for the A220. The target production is now 1,441 aircraft of which 64 have been delivered to five customers. The near term challenges are ramping up production, working on supplier costs and adding additional orders. We expected that Airbus should be able to add
AIR Forecast Series
AIR67 – Boeing Production Outlook to 2032
This deliverable assumes a status quo with MAX and NMA in service by 2025-2026. This is the second part of our revised commercial aircraft forecast specifically designed for our research customers.
AIR Forecast Series
AIR66 – Commercial Aircraft Outlook to 2032 – Part 1
This is the first part of our revised commercial aircraft forecast specifically designed for our research customers. Please click on this link to download the pdf document
AIR ANALYST NOTES
AIR65 – A Matter of Subsidies and Geopolitics
Two issues popped up on our foggy (Seattle based) radar screen this morning. Subsidies and government support/intervention are both very touchy topics, so we venture on this issue with a much required diplomatic angle.
The first issue is the current lengthening trade negotiations between the US and the PRC. This note from
AIR COGITATIO
Cogitatio3: Qatar Says No
Akbar Al Baker is not one to mince his words and his candor has at times been a source of controversy for some.Qatar Airways financial results are in, and for the second year in a row, the airline is reporting a loss, largely attributable to the airspace ban experienced by the airline.
AIR COGITATIO
Cogitatio2: Vertical Lift Doldrums
We have been attending HeliExpo in Atlanta, and the generally depressed sentiment that has been characterizing the market for a few years, and thus the show, appears to be persisting.
There are definite and palpable worries surrounding the leasing market…
AIR COGITATIO
Cogitatio1: Tanker Concerns Go Deeper
Boeing KC-46 deliveries have been suspended by the USAF customer following discovery of multiple instances of loose tools and debris on newly delivered KC-46s.
Multiple factors can contribute to such events. In our opinion, key issues can range from traveled work, to delays, to rushing production to meet deadline(s); all of these issues have indeed been…
AIR ANALYST NOTES
AIR64 – A Matter of Loyalty
We will not revisit in detail the background for “Loyal Wingman” as an AFRL program, there is plenty of documentation available in the public domain for us to review on the issue. This effort stems from the Low-Cost Attritable Strike Unmanned Aerial System Demonstration (LCASD), a proof-of-concept initiative designed to provide an unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV) that can execute a variety of mission at a fraction of the cost and risk of an F-35 or even F-15E. This is nothing new, Boeing has been working on such an approach since the late 1990s, with one of their first effort being a study with Dassault Aviation about manned/unmanned joint operations in the early 2000s.
The agreement between Boeing and the Australian government to proceed with the “Loyal Wingman” concept is particularly interesting for a number of reasons: operational, industrial and strategic.
Operational:
Loyal Wingman (LW) will integrate into the RAAF Airpower Teaming System as a force multiplier. First, for EW and reconnaissance missions; then as part of a….
AIR ANALYST NOTES
AIR61 – Revealing uncertainties
One Step Forward, Two Steps Backward
Boeing’s CEO, Dennis Muilenburg has added to the uncertainty surrounding the NMA (New Midsized Aircraft) introduction to market. During the presentation of the 2018 financial results, very strong it must be noted, the Boeing CEO has announced that an ATO (authority to offer) was likely in 2019 (no surprise), with a formal launch taking place in 2020 (surprise). This compresses the programme development timeline somewhat, and suggests that Boeing is either: a) far more ahead of the development curve than might be thought and thus has built-in margins; or b) Houston, we still have a problem with the industrialization for this program.
Fundamentally, this NMA equation, sounds more and more like a business case resolution matter to us…
AIR ANALYST NOTES
AIR60 – 2019 is upon us – all hands on deck
AIR is presenting our new year outlook on what we expect to be the most significant issues, positive or negative, impacting the industry in 2019.
Our 2018 outlook predicted significant trade issues, impacts from monetary policies, a year of production surge challenges, and a strong merger and acquisition environment, all of which did materialize. Our forecast for commercial aircraft was suggesting about 790 commercial aircraft produced by Boeing (delivered) and 805 commercial aircraft for Airbus (not delivered). While it will take some time to decipher what rolled out of the FALs in December, it appears that both companies were quite close to their delivery targets….
AIR ANALYST NOTES
AIR58 – 2018: Something About Uncertainty
> “Uncertainty is the worst of all ills, until reality makes us regret uncertainty.” Alphonse Karr
Year of Doubt
Was 2018 a sign of things to come or just the second year of a much large disruptive series of interesting events? For the commercial aerospace industry, it is probably a year that gave participants their strongest taste of what’s to come in the years ahead (production surge, economic slowdown, trade, and supply chain restructuring) and also perhaps, a year that took the polish of a somewhat artificially inflated , and speculative, financial market.The major surprise of 2018 is the disconnect between market fundamentals and stock market performance in a vast majority
AIR ANALYST NOTES
AIR56 – Airbus’ Winter Offensive
Still a sensitive topic
The notoriously bitterly contested KC-X competition has left scars amongst customer, bidders and partners alike. There were many lessons derived from, some would argue, a questionable and at time chaotic process that led to the ultimate decision to select the Boeing KC-46A Pegasus.
Airbus and its original partner Northrop Grumman perhaps also tested the limits of globalization of supply sources in the US defense sector. Despite Northrop Grumman’s credentials and the significant US supplier content found on the A330 airframe, the competition kept of referring to the aircraft as French.
