AIR COGITATIO
Cogitatio 44 – E3 thoughts from CGI and Airbus AFJT
Embraer has been sharing two CGI images of the rumored E3 turboprop regional aircraft. This is an aircraft that we have been anticipating for the past five years or about. We have briefly discussed the proposed new design with FlightGlobal, and here are some of our preliminary thoughts on what can be deduced from these images:
What it says about Embraer: the E3 work appears to have been marginally slowed by the now defunct Boeing-Embraer commercial venture. Research resumed
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Cogitatio34 – Target Fixation Kills the Deal
“Thus are the dangers of target fixation—focusing so intently on the goal of one’s desire that bad choices inevitably follow. … More often, it ends in lost opportunities, wasted time, and goals never achieved.”
For those who have been reading our notes over the past four years, you may remember our initial hesitations concerning the Embraer-Boeing deal in the summer of 2018.
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AIR77- Multirole and Tanker Markets to 2030
Boeing is set to dominate deliveries of tanker/multirole aircraft to 2030 but the rise of A330MRTT, A400M and KC390 as tanker/multirole capable aircraft further puts pressure on Boeing shares and margins throughout the decade.
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AIR76 – Boeing and the 777X under pressure from A350 but the company should capture bulk share of 777 replacement
We take a look at the Boeing 777X programme. This market segment will continue to witness an overall slow growth for another 2-3 years. What is clearly noticeable is the significant loss of market for Boeing against a rising widebody set of solutions from Airbus. We generally estimate Boeing’s market share of the 777 replacement to stand at 52 percent.
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Cogitation13: Mini Tremor
We are not referring to the 4.8 earthquake that jolted the greater Seattle area last night, but rather to the small but significant shake up at the Boeing company that was announced by Kevin McAllister to employees yesterday.
What to make of it?
Eric Lindblad’s retirement: not much to say other than the official story. His retirement was over a year in the making; he was brought into the 737 program to
AIR COGITATIO
Cogitatio12: Is the Pacific Northwest Business Culture Partly Responsible for Boeing’s Problems?
The fundamental question can be summarized as such: Have “Heritage Boeing” and the Pacific Northwest (PNW) business culture been the source of unnecessarily complicated processes and delays within the company that ultimately lead to poor decisions and internal conflict, or did the Chicago breakaway play a more significant role? The answers are clearly “may be” in both cases, the documented PNW insular…
AIR COGITATIO
Cogitatio11: Information Warfare
There has been a flurry of well orchestrated articles over the past few weeks denouncing Boeing ‘s business decisions and practices (this one and that one are two prime examples). This is a direct result of the MAX crisis, with the mainstream media in particular growing increasingly interested in the story, mostly because the controversy factor is having significant traction with the public and thus cannot be ignored.Regardless, we find the timing of the stories most interesting, and we generally believe it to also be an…
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AIR75 – Uncertainty Wins The Show
Paris Air Show key takeways:
Airbus has solid sales for A321XLR, A330NEO, wins firm orders 149 to 20. Conversions are significant and will help margins.
Boeing has subdued event, as we were expecting earlier this month – The IAG LOI shows potential continuous support for 737MAX. BCF shows on-going strength. NMA goes MIA.
Embraer and ATR also have solid sales at the show, Mitsubishi and Spacejet clearly fall short of expectation this time around.
SCAF/FCAS launch and preliminary mock-up are not representative of the actual design maturity. The UK Tempest is potentially…
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AIR74: Why we think Boeing will make the NMA 2025 EIS target
Opinions abound lately about NMA and in particular whether Boeing is going to find itself able to commit to a delivery of the aircraft to a first operator by 2025.The debate is taking place in an environment dominated by the 737MAX crisis and the 777X first flight delays. Indirectly, these events are shaping the current thinking that may be taking place with respect to a) NMA’s viability as a programme…
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AIR73 – Mid Year Forecast Update
Our presentation at the I90 Aerospace corridor conference last week serves as the basis for our mid year forecast update. Please use this link to download the document.
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Cogitatio10: Could COMAC or AVIC be Blacklisted by the US Administration Now or in the Future?
The more we read about the escalating tensions between the United States, the People’s Republic of China, and the rest of the world, the more we begin to wonder about the next level of unilateral action that could be taken by any of the participating actors…
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AIR72 – Boeing at a strategic crossroads
The MAX crisis is undeniably the most serious event that the commercial division has probably ever faced in its history. While in the 1990s the 737 also faced a series of initially unexplained accidents, the events took place over a longer period of time and had unique contributing factors that share little parallels with the current crisis.This note is going to examine the situation objectively, away from the social media chaotic and unfocused thinking, and the sensationalist pieces that have increasingly reporting news, either selectively, or have been drawing incomplete and/or incorrect interpretations from isolated elements.
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Cogitatio9 – Parker buys Lord, more to come…
A perfect white swan, we knew this was a distinct possible scenario and it has indeed materialized.The Parker planned acquisition of Lord is the latest in a series of consolidation that has been characterizing the aerospace industry ever since the change of production pace and supplier strategies at Airbus, Boeing and other OEMs.
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Cogitatio8 – Turkish Options: Not So Delightful
In the dispute that currently opposes Turkey to the United States with the possible acquisition of S-400 (C-400 Триумф) from Russia, the options available to Turkey to remedy to the operational and industrial impact of leaving the F-35 program could appear plentiful, but are they? For Turkey, this is about making choices at several different levels: geopolitical, operational, industrial and thus could lead to a reset and repositioning of the country’s role inside or outside of the NATO alliance.
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Cogitatio7 – Boeing Q1 Results’ Red Flags
Boeing’s results are out and these were particularly interesting due to the current crisis facing the commercial division’s best seller 737MAX aircraft.Issue 1: Securing regulatory approval for the MCAS software fix will be a test of a) Boeing’s processes and b) international certification requirements. b) will not go smoothly because of
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AIR70 – Dismantlement
Uncertainty heads for uncharted waters due to unintended consequences. In the ongoing saga that pits the current administration against the vast majority of the rest of the industrial world, today come news from the White House and the US Trade Representative (USTR) that the administration is intending on imposing approximately $11 Billion of tariffs against the EU aerospace industry, based on the so-called subsidies granted to Airbus Group and that
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AIR69 – 787 outlook and rising backlog uncertainty
Here is our revised outlook to 2032 for the Boeing 787. The target production varies depending on which scenario we look at, we however believe that Boeing should be able to reach production of 2,000 aircraft or about by 2032. The near term challenges are getting sufficient orders to maintain rates beyond….
