AIR ANALYST NOTES

Our latest estimate shows that Boeing is facing a decline in revenues as the 737 production declines from 2024-25. Services should be able to fill in for a part of those declining production revenues, however the MAX grounding postpones such revenues by at least two years. Furthermore, this estimated revenue gap far exceeds our projected…

The 737 MAX crisis provides an opportunity to reflect on many issues beyond the aircraft’s difficulties and shortcomings. While we have voiced our concerns about the multiple opinion pieces that have populated the media sphere and the obvious campaigns orchestrated by selected groups to discredit Boeing senior management, there are nevertheless some valid elements worthy of examination.

This research note will be divided in three major sections; the first one will examine multiple scenarios for MAX return to flight. The second one will assess the 737 crisis and its impact on Boeing’s enterprise commercial strategy. Finally…

Boeing is set to dominate deliveries of tanker/multirole aircraft to 2030 but the rise of A330MRTT, A400M and KC390 as tanker/multirole capable aircraft further puts pressure on Boeing shares and margins throughout the decade.

We take a look at the Boeing 777X programme. This market segment will continue to witness an overall slow growth for another 2-3 years. What is clearly noticeable is the significant loss of market for Boeing against a rising widebody set of solutions from Airbus. We generally estimate Boeing’s market share of the 777 replacement to stand at 52 percent.

Paris Air Show key takeways:
Airbus has solid sales for A321XLR, A330NEO, wins firm orders 149 to 20.  Conversions are significant and will help margins.
Boeing has subdued event, as we were expecting earlier this month –  The IAG LOI shows potential continuous support for 737MAX. BCF shows on-going strength.  NMA goes MIA.
Embraer and ATR also have solid sales at the show, Mitsubishi and Spacejet clearly fall short of expectation this time around.
SCAF/FCAS launch and preliminary mock-up are not representative of the actual design maturity.  The UK Tempest is potentially…

Opinions abound lately about NMA and in particular whether Boeing is going to find itself able to commit to a delivery of the aircraft to a first operator by 2025.The debate is taking place in an environment dominated by the 737MAX crisis and the 777X first flight delays.  Indirectly, these events are shaping the current thinking that may be taking place with respect to a) NMA’s viability as a programme…

Our presentation at the I90 Aerospace corridor conference last week serves as the basis for our mid year forecast update.  Please use this link to download the document.

The MAX crisis is undeniably the most serious event that the commercial division has probably ever faced in its history. While in the 1990s the 737 also faced a series of initially unexplained accidents,  the events took place over a longer period of time and had unique contributing factors that share little parallels with the current crisis.This note is going to examine the situation objectively, away from the social media chaotic and unfocused thinking, and the sensationalist pieces that have increasingly reporting news, either selectively, or have been drawing incomplete and/or incorrect interpretations from isolated elements.

Uncertainty heads for uncharted waters due to unintended consequences.  In the ongoing saga that pits the current administration against the vast majority of the rest of the industrial world, today come news from the White House and the US Trade Representative (USTR) that the administration is intending on imposing approximately $11 Billion of tariffs against the EU aerospace industry,  based on the so-called subsidies granted to Airbus Group and that

Here is our revised outlook to 2032 for the Boeing 787.  The target production varies depending on which scenario we look at,  we however believe that Boeing should be able to reach production of 2,000 aircraft or about by 2032.  The near term challenges are getting sufficient orders to maintain rates beyond….

Here is our revised outlook to 2032 for the A220.  The target production is now 1,441 aircraft of which 64 have been delivered to five customers.  The near term challenges are ramping up production,  working on supplier costs and adding additional orders.  We expected that Airbus should be able to add

Two issues popped up on our foggy (Seattle based) radar screen this morning.  Subsidies and government support/intervention are both very touchy topics, so we venture on this issue with a much required diplomatic angle.
The first issue is the current lengthening trade negotiations between the US and the PRC.  This note from

We will not revisit in detail the background for “Loyal Wingman” as an AFRL program, there is plenty of documentation available in the public domain for us to review on the issue. This effort stems from the Low-Cost Attritable Strike Unmanned Aerial System Demonstration (LCASD), a proof-of-concept initiative designed to provide an unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV) that can execute a variety of mission at a fraction of the cost and risk of an F-35 or even F-15E. This is nothing new, Boeing has been working on such an approach since the late 1990s, with one of their first effort being a study with Dassault Aviation about manned/unmanned joint operations in the early 2000s.

The agreement between Boeing and the Australian government to proceed with the “Loyal Wingman” concept is particularly interesting for a number of reasons: operational, industrial and strategic.

Operational:

Loyal Wingman (LW) will integrate into the RAAF Airpower Teaming System as a force multiplier. First, for EW and reconnaissance missions; then as part of a….

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