AIR COGITATIO

Cogitatio 40 – T-7A Market Outlook: Positive but Increasingly Fragmented

Since Boeing’s not so unexpected capture of the USAF T-X market, we have been reviewing the potential of this aircraft with interest since it will represent a significant test for Boeing ahead of the F-18, F-22 and F-15 recapitalization programs.

T-X is a multifaceted effort – a new (and critical) production system, a new way to develop and produce an light jet aircraft (thank you Saab), a new training system, new supply chain engagement, new approach to rapid technology insertion plans and capabilities development.

The next two decades will also be characterized by major market access challenges for Boeing and the United States. In this forecast note, we have selected to look only at the market accessible to the T-7A and thus have omitted such markets as China and Russia that we would normally included.

By Michel Merluzeau, ago

Cogitatio 39 – Everett and the Evidence of Absence

As Boeing is likely preparing to migrate the 787 program final assembly to South Carolina, questions are emerging about the evolution and the future of the production capacity of the company in its native Puget Sound area. Yet again, we are facing the exact same sempiternal debate about Boeing, and its supposed inevitable departure from WA state, or are we?

What is the current contraction of production in Everett telling us about Boeing’s near to medium term programmatic plans, and is Everett role likely to change, rather than disappear…

By Michel Merluzeau, ago

Cogitatio 38: Boeing’s Lost Supplier Management Decade

“PFS v4” has landed, it is called Boeing Premier Bidder.

While the rationale behind PFS was driven by a combination of circumstances and necessary reset of the relation between Boeing and its supply chain, we view the Boeing Premier Bidder programme more as an evolutionary development of the incessant, reactive and unfocused supplier management approach from Seattle since 2013.

Boeing supplier management seems to lack consistency, and has mostly been driven by

By Michel Merluzeau, ago

Cogitatio 37 – Boeing’s most critical next eight months

It is unquestionable that the commercial aerospace industry is facing a near term existential crisis. While the situation at aircraft OEMs is daunting, Boeing is faced with challenges that currently gives Chicago absolutely zero margin for error. In the event of another delay or setback(s) for the airline industry, we believe that Boeing will be faced with few options but to contemplate Chapter 11.

By Michel Merluzeau, ago

Cogitatio 36 – Wipe Out

Massive Reset

We will be releasing a lengthy notes about OEMs and Suppliers strategic options tomorrow. In the meantime, here is another update to 2030 as to the likely impact of the COVID crisis on the entire aerospace and defense segments. This is a snapshot of the current situation as of May 2020 and the segment that may get impacted further as the crisis evolves in other parts of the world.

By Michel Merluzeau, ago

Cogitatio 35 – A future to the MAX

And the topic goes on… We have amply covered the MAX crisis over the past 24 months but perhaps need now to recalibrate our position as the market environment will profoundly alter competitive dynamics in the next 3-5 years.

The events of the past 24 months have indeed pushed the 737 MAX into a downward spiral. Two accidents, resulting civil and criminal lawsuits, and a regular stream of technical flaws, mismanagement…

By Michel Merluzeau, ago

Cogitatio33 – Lessons Learned So Far

The COVID-19 White Swan is a cataclysmic disruptor for the global economy and our societies. The human impact will be catastrophic, and it will likely take years to precisely understand the root cause of the disease, its epidemiology and the changes needed to more effectively tackle the next event for mankind.

Devin Lidell, Principal Futurist at TEAGUE said it best in a recent insight that we highly recommend: “so the days of system shock followed by collective amnesia will need to end . The realities of a post-COVID-19 world will pose new challenges to cities and transportation systems in particular”

So, three months into this crisis, what are some of the preliminary lessons learned?

1) We saw it coming but we completely failed to estimate the velocity of the societal and financial freefall.

While January confirmed the possibility of COVID-19 eventually making landfall outside of China, our perspective and framing of a potential response to the epidemic (at the time) was entirely based on still incomplete information

By Michel Merluzeau, ago

Cogitatio29 – Making Sense of NMA And What Comes Next

There has been a significant  number of incoherent messages coming out on the NMA topic, and the apparent lack of product strategy from the Boeing company.  We have not been shying away from expressing our criticism at this perceived lack of strategic decision making and at the inconsistent messaging from the new Boeing CEO, Dave Calhoun.  NMA is a topic of particular importance.  We have stated this ad nauseam…

By Michel Merluzeau, ago

Cogitatio17- FCAS turf battles

The Future Combat Air System (FCAS) is experiencing some turbulences – as one might expect. On one side, France, represented by Dassault, SAFRAN and Thales, the key partners in the Mirage and Rafale families and on the other side Germany, mostly represented by Airbus and MTU. Since its unveiling at the Paris Airshow, FCAS has been delayed by the politics of European Defense, and the latest move by Spain, with the selection of Indra as the lead for the Spanish industry is perhaps not desirable for the program at this early juncture.

By Michel Merluzeau, ago
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