AIR Forecast Series

Boeing production outlook – midyear update.

This week, we provide an update for business jet production to 2030.  Overall,  the segment has demonstrated stronger than expected performance in terms of flight hours flown, primarily in North America and also production which was down only 18% from 2019…

We have revised some of our numbers for the next five years. As outlined in our first briefing in April , 2020 to 2023 will witness a severe contraction, particularly for widebody markets. A slow recovery will materialize in the second half of the 2020s for that segment of the market.

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This week’s note looks at the business aviation outlook to 2030. We have often connected the health of the business aviation market with other variables such as financial markets performance and corporate profits. Historically, there has indeed been a very strong correlation between aircraft orders and financial trends. However, the financial crisis of 2009 proved that this trend no longer applied…

Production rates are a moving target these days. Boeing, Airbus, COMAC and Embraer have planned and adjusted production output based on anticipated demand recovery cycles, and which are based on a still rapidly evolving crisis. What happens in the next 6-12 months remains very

The results are in, and as expected. The COVID crisis will be felt until the early 2030s and both Airbus and Boeing are at a critical juncture of their history.

The questions are now relatively simple: what market environment is to be expected in the next decade? What will be the impact on the competitive environment and finally what strategic direction should the industry adopt to adapt and grow in a scorched commercial market landscape.

Boeing’s peak valuation stood once at $250B,

Our revised outlook is available. Three scenarios have been considered for this updated forecast.  We are generally positive about the long term industry resiliency.  Our concerns that may lead to a more severe regional crisis have now clearly migrated into the geopolitical & societal consequences of this major crisis. 

This report is part of the Forecast Series available to our research customers until May.   This new format will provide you with unique market data customization capabilities.

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Part two of this report will look at suppliers and systems.  Commercial markets forecast will be updated this month and in April. 

Our forecast dashboard has been updated with the addition of the Airbus outlook to 2033.  Access to all AIR Power BI dashboards is available to all research customers until May.

We ended 2019 on a distinctly cautionary note. Now we begin 2020 with a single purpose for AIR research customers, to paraphrase Nate Silver’s 2012 work, to help separate the “The Signal from the Noise” to , simply said, provide a flightplan like outlook for the year(s) ahead.

This note will be delivered in a unique format as well, we will include an audio to provide appropriate background info for our forecast and recommendations. Ernie Arvai, the AIGroup president joined me to provide multiple views. The accompanying audio can be played here

737MAXes uninterrupted production means that those aircraft are currently still being ferried and stored at a rate of 40-42 per month.  This situation will continue until the regulators and customers are satisfied with the solutions and fixes proposed by Boeing.  At this stage, we maintain our Q1 2020 target for return to service with operators.

Two questions are at the forefront of our production outlook analysis these days:

– Is there a discernible storage pattern that may provide some clarity…